terça-feira, 7 de agosto de 2012

Foreign Policy - Town of Secrets


  EUA – Foreign Policy

Town of Secrets

How classified information became Washington’s currency of choice.
BY DAVID ROTHKOPF
Hey, Sean Penn, where is your righteous indignation now? Where is your star-studded Hollywood blockbuster about how cynical Washington insiders are playing fast and loose with America's national security laws to advance their political interests?
You nailed George W. Bush and company with Fair Game, and there is little doubt the Bush team deserved it for exposing CIA officer Valerie Plame and by extension the undercover contacts she had made worldwide. But somehow I doubt you are working on the sequel about how Barack Obama's administration has presided over a period of potentially far more damaging leaks that just happen to promote the president's image as being a tough guy with his hand on the trigger.
Oh sure, the investigation into (at least some) of the leaks has just begun and in all likelihood will be hijacked by Republicans for political gain in the months leading up to the presidential election this November. And we can't be sure that the leaks were orchestrated or approved high up, or even who did what -- though there is a bit of a guessing game going on in Washington on the latter. But this we know: From the moment we first heard too many details of the Osama bin Laden mission to the damaging over-reporting of the Stuxnet cyberattacks to the reports of the president poring over kill lists and supervising closed meetings of top advisors at which secret missions were approved, and, on to recent leaks about the CIA covert work supporting the Syrian opposition, we have been fed a steady stream of information we should never have had.
It is possible that this all slipped out due to the inattentiveness of our secret keepers or an administration-wide outbreak of some new strain of Tourette's Syndrome that forces senior officials to uncontrollably blurt out closely guarded secrets. Perhaps no senior official was involved. But wait -- who are we kidding? Of course senior officials were involved. Some of the meetings being reported on and some of the plans were really only known to a handful of top people.
Which brings me back to Sean Penn and friends. If a Republican were manning the Oval Office right now, is there any doubt that they would be harkening back to the orchestrated outing of Plame and calling it part of an insidious pattern? But as it is -- despite expressions of concern about recent leaks from both Democrats like Sen. Dianne Feinstein and mainstream Republicans like Sen. John McCain and absolutely unconvincing expressions of "shock, shock" from President Obama, most of those who were outraged the last time around have kept quiet about the current debate. Or, alternatively, as in Bill Keller's New York Times op-ed "The Leak Police," they have focused on how vital such leaks and their reporting are to the national interest.
The truth is, I agree completely with the thrust of most of those op-eds including Keller's. As Americans, we benefit from knowing much of what has been reported. And the reporters who have reported these facts are not only just doing their jobs -- they're doing it well. (As Feinstein said regarding David Sanger's excellent recent book covering many of the Obama team's secret operations, Confront and Conceal, "You learn more from the book than I did as chairman of the intelligence committee.")
But these leaks are in fact, part of a cynical pattern of abuse of U.S. national security laws that has taken place in this administration and the ones that immediately preceded it -- abuse that is endemic to the conduct of regular national security business in Washington and has been for decades. (Keller quotes former Times editor Max Frankel way back in 1971 as saying "Presidents make ‘secret' decisions only to reveal them for the purposes of frightening an adversary nation, wooing a friendly electorate, protecting their reputations." Frankel, who was defending the Times's publication of the Pentagon Papers, then goes on to enumerate how playing the leak game is part of doing business in D.C. for the military and officials of every rank.)
Just as poppet beads are the currency used to conduct business at Club Med, leaks are the currency long favored by senior officials and reporters here in our nation's capital. Bits and pieces of unreported news are fed to journalists in exchange for good relations. Perversely in Washington, secrets become used as hush money -- give a secret, keep a secret, or gain a leg up on someone. That's not so bad when the whispered exchanges are about who's in line for some top job or who had a spat with whom. The problem comes when the leaks create threats to the U.S. national interest or they violate national security laws.
I draw a distinction between real threats and the law because one problem we face is that our culture of secrecy in Washington has led to the over-classification of information. Too many documents get stamped "Confidential" or "Secret" or "Top Secret" that shouldn't be. Why? In part, it's because when you stamp a document that way it, you (and your readers) become more "important" -- or at least feel that way. It also happens, in part, because officials are cautious and worry about what might cause embarrassment, so they over-compensate by over-classifying.
But all this over-classification of documents carries many direct and indirect costs. It forces us to give too many people security clearances. It forces us to create costly and vast secure systems. And most importantly, it limits the transparency that is essential to a functioning democracy. (On top of leaks and excess secrecy, a related trend in this administration has been a focus on conducting foreign policy via secret missions that carry much less political risk because few can see them -- unless the highlight reel happens to, selectively, make its way into the press.)
For all the mystery and intrigue associated with Washington's secret world, the solutions for this problem are straightforward. First, we need to have fewer secrets. Set higher and clearer standards for classification. Enable fewer people to classify documents. Unclassify as many documents as possible.
Next, we need to have many fewer people with clearances. According to a 2011 report mandated by Congress, an astonishing 4.2 million people have security clearances a number which, per the Washington Post, "nearly rivals the population of metropolitan Washington." If the standard were actually protecting secrets that were essential to U.S. national security, the number could be a tiny percentage of that. That's especially true in this age of vast resources of open-source information.
Gen. Tony Zinni, former Centcom commander, once told me that he had looked at the classified information he received and concluded that 80 percent of it was available from open sources, and 80 percent of what remained could be found from open sources if you knew what you were looking for. In other words, only about 4 percent was unique information.
Finally, if the goal is real secrecy, then we need a permanent special prosecutor empowered to go after any hint of a leak at its own discretion. This needs to be permanent so that no administration can protect itself -- nor any Congress. (It has long been known in the executive branch that the best way to leak something is to send it in classified form up to the Hill, which is leakier than the Titanic.) If we stop classifying everything from the blandest State Department cable traffic to reports about Kim Jong Il's video collection (see WikiLeaks for proof that much of what's classified would be protected simply because it's too boring to read and remember) and if there were a sense that real prosecutions would follow leaks and that they could not be manipulated politically, then not only would we have fewer damaging and dangerous leaks, we'd save money, have greater transparency and, with some luck, enable Sean Penn to go back to making better movies about more interesting subjects.

África disputada por EUA e China

Discurso bonitinho dos EUA porque estão tendo menos espaço na África do que a China. A realidade é clara: China tem interesses econômicos no continente. E não tem essa de "desenvolvimento" por si só. (vide situação de país que não tem nada a oferecer, como o Timor)

Reino Unido – Financial Times

China attacks Clinton’s Africa comments

By Katrina Manson in Nairobi

Chinese state media have lashed out at Hillary Clinton, US secretary of state, after she warned African leaders about co-operation with countries who want to exploit the continent’s resources.
On a tour of sub-Saharan Africa to promote political stability, Mrs Clinton said this week that the US would stand up for democracy and universal human rights, “even when it might be easier or more profitable to look the other way, to keep the resources flowing”.
 “Not every partner makes that choice, but we do and we will,” she said, without naming China, in a speech delivered in Senegal.
The “implication that China has been extracting Africa’s wealth for itself is utterly wide of the truth”, a commentary from Beijing’s official Xinhua news agency said on Friday of Mrs Clinton’s comment that the US was committed to a model that “adds value rather than extracts it”.
Mrs Clinton’s words offered “cheap shots” and were part of “a plot to sow discord between China [and] Africa” for the US’s “selfish gain”, said Xinhua. It added that her trip was part of a hidden agenda, “aimed at least partly at discrediting China’s engagement with the continent and curbing China’s influence there”.
Mrs Clinton’s 11-day trip to Africa comes as China continues to gain influence in markets across the continent – home to vast resource wealth and some of the world’s fastest-growing countries.
While President Barack Obama unveiled a new Africa strategy in June, focusing on democracy, economic growth, security and development, China has promised Africa $20bn in loans in the next three years.
China, which put Sino-African trade at $166bn last year, overtook the US as Africa’s largest partner three years ago.
“There is a general sense that China appears to be eclipsing America in Africa,” said Comfort Ero, Africa programme director at the International Crisis Group. “This is her [Mrs Clinton’s] second big pitch to try to sell the differences between the US and China in a positive way, suggesting the US has Africa’s interests at heart and is genuinely concerned with progress around democracy, and that China is only interested in grabbing resources,” said Ms Ero, referring to a visit by Mrs Clinton to Africa last year.
Mrs Clinton, whose trip takes in Senegal, Uganda, South Sudan, Kenya, Malawi, South Africa and Ghana, was accompanied by a large US business delegation, and stressed Africa’s economic potential. “We believe that if you want to make a good investment in the midst of what is still a very difficult global economy, go to Africa,” she said during the same speech.
She voiced fears that the continent was “backsliding” on democracy.
Meanwhile, she has faced criticism over her close relationship with President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda, whose army makes up the bulk of a heavily US-funded African Union force that fights Islamist militants in Somalia, but who has refused to step down.
The US focus on governance is “inconsistent and shifts with its interests”, said Daniel Kalinaki, managing editor of Uganda’s Daily Monitor newspaper. After 2010 bombings in Uganda, carried out by al-Qaeda-linked, Somalia-based militants, “all the talk of democracy was suddenly replaced by talk about regional security and Somalia”.
Mrs Clinton met Mr Museveni and President Salva Kiir of South Sudan on Friday, stressing the need for strong institutions and adherence to the constitution. She is due to meet President Mwai Kibaki of Kenya on Saturday before travelling to Malawi and then South Africa.

China Daily - A tale of two Asian nations


  China Daily

A tale of two Asian nations

How China and India compare economically, demographically
China and India are the two countries most often compared with each other among the economic grouping known as BRIC nations - Brazil, Russia, India and China.
Many are speculating which of the largest and second largest populous nations will become the winner in the information technology era.
Comparing the two countries' gross domestic products, average annual per capita incomes, PC shipments, basic infrastructure and IT spendings, China nearly always comes out on top.
"India's PC market development is at least five years behind China," said Amar Babu, managing director of Lenovo India, who has been working in India's IT industry for more than 23 years.
However, even though the Chinese economy historically has outpaced India's by just about every measure, who will win the IT war in the future?
Similarities
As the only two countries in the world with populations exceeding 1 billion, China and India share many common points.
Surging GDP growth, an emerging middle class, rising urbanization, increasing small and medium-sized enterprises and the number of female company owners have all provided big opportunities for the two countries' information technology development.
Both of the countries have sustained the world's highest annual GDP growth in the past 10 years - 9 percent for China, about 7 percent for India. After the 2008 financial global crisis, the two have been said by global financial experts to be "among the world's most successful in weathering the challenges of the global economy's great recession".
According to the most recent censuses of each nation, China's National Bureau of Statistics reported that there were 1.266 billion people in China in 2000 while the Registrar General and Census Commissioner of India said the country had 1.029 billion in 2001.
However, according to the International Monetary Fund, China's GDP was $6,988.47 billion in 2011 while India's was only $1,843.38 billion. The figures and data showed that back in 1990, China and India's annual average per capita income were both around $350 - with India's slightly higher.
The situation started to change after that. In 2009, the gap increased to $2,410 per person, but the order was reversed. The annual average per capita income in China reached $3,590 in 2009, while India's was only $1,180 in the same year.
Income differences
The economic growth and situation are like barometers to a country's IT spending and development. Comparing the two countries' economic figures and IT spending, India is far behind the Middle Kingdom.
According to the IMF, India's level of income per capita in 2009 was achieved by China nine years ago. However, the organization did not say Indians will necessarily be as wealthy as Chinese people are now in the next nine years.
China's exports made up about 35 percent of GDP compared with only 24 percent for India in 2008.
Because of the GDP difference and economic gap, according to the US-based IT research company IDC, China's IT spending is about four times more than India's, at about $30.2 billion in 2011 and expected to grow at an average annual rate of 21.3 percent to $65.3 billion by the end of 2015.
In the personal IT market, the gap is even more significant. Taking the PC market for example, China's shipments were about seven times more than India's in 2011. PC shipments were 10.6 million units in India in 2011 and about 73 million units in the Chinese market.
"IDC data indicate that India's PC market size in 2011 is similar to China's in 2002. Even five years later, the India market will still stay at China's 2004 level," said Wang Jiping, senior research manager of IDC China. "In recent years, more and more companies have asked the questions: 'Is India really the next China?'"
In 2004, China's PC shipments were 18.2 million units. The company predicted India's PC shipments will reach 16.78 million in 2016 from 10.6 million last year.
China's National Bureau of Statistics data show that the urban population in the nation currently accounts for about 51 percent of the total population. Compared with 2000, the number increased about 14 percentage points.
However, in 2011, India, with about 247 million households, had an urban population of about 30 percent.
"With an urban population smaller than China and an even sharper gap between rich and poor, the development difference between the two countries is accelerating," said Wang.
Economically speaking, the IT industry has become one of the biggest economic growth drivers for India. According to Prashant L. Rao, the editor of India's long established IT publisher Express Computer, the SME slice of the Indian PC market works out at about 27 percent of the total PC market.
According to a survey made by the International Labour Organization, the average monthly salary was $295 in India last year and $656 in China. A child's chance of surviving more than five years after birth is the same in India today as it was in China in the 1970s.
During the financial crisis, more so than with China, India's domestic economy provided a cushion from external economic pressures. Private domestic consumption contributed 57 percent of GDP in India compared with only 35 percent in China. Despite this, "potential IT purchases are significantly less than in China," said Wang.
International firms
There are many Lenovo Group stores - the biggest Chinese PC company - in India. However, there is not a single Indian PC exclusive store or Internet mobile maker in China.
Last year, the top two PC vendors in India were Dell Inc with 16.4 percent market share and HP with 12.8 percent. In the first quarter of this year, Lenovo became the largest PC company in the Indian market for the first time.
Dell entered India in 1998, six years later than it entered the Chinese market, and built its first factory in the nation in 2007.
China, as the largest market for Dell outside the United States, contributes about 10 percent of Dell's global sales now, while India contributes about 2 percent and is in the No 10 slot, according to Amit Midha, president of Dell Asia-Pacific and Japan, chairman of Dell global emerging markets.
At Dell's Dell Women's Entrepreneur Network event which was held in New Delhi from June 17 to 19 this year, he mentioned that although the investment Dell puts into the Chinese market is more than it puts into the Indian market, it employs three times more people in India than in China. That is because the employees not only service the Indian market but also the US market.
Currently the company has 27,000 employees in India and can cover 88 percent of the nation with sales and delivery.
HCL, the largest local PC maker in the Indian market, has never entered the Chinese market.
Economies
India has been one of the fastest growth trade partners with China in the last few years. In 2011, bilateral trade between China and India reached $78.9 billion in infrastructure, finance and technology, said Peng Gang, commercial counsellor of China's embassy in India.
As a consequence of the global financial crisis, exports of both countries have encountered difficulties, causing GDP growth to slip.
India's GDP growth was 5.3 percent in the first quarter of this year, the lowest in the past 10 years, as was China.
The common point between the two economies is that they have a huge domestic demand. Peng said that the Indian government has enforced many policies and rules to boost domestic demand.
However, compared with China, India's economy doesn't depend on exports that much.
Languages
IDC data shows that because India's official languages are Hindi and English, in the past 10 years India IT services have made rapid progress.
"Service outsourcing is the most impressive industry in India worldwide," Wang said.
He mentioned that India IT services and software were almost double the size of China's. Spending on operations management software is higher in India, with China measuring 59.2 percent of India's output in 2011.

quinta-feira, 2 de agosto de 2012

Valor Econômico - Crise e capitalismo de Estado


Valor Econômico - Crise e capitalismo de Estado / Jorge Arbache

A "The Economist" publicou um provocativo relatório especial sobre capitalismo de Estado, modelo que, segundo a revista, "combina as forças do Estado com as forças do capitalismo". Desde então, o assunto ganhou atenção mundo afora e tem contribuído para os debates sobre a crise econômica e sobre modelos de desenvolvimento. A crescente influência das economias emergentes na economia mundial e a sua resiliência à crise financeira estariam por detrás do grande interesse pelo assunto. Contrariamente ao dirigismo muitas vezes observado até recentemente em muitos países em desenvolvimento, o capitalismo de Estado se utilizaria, segundo a revista, de instrumentos e métodos de gestão de mercado para atingir seus objetivos. O relatório justifica o foco nas experiências recentes dos países emergentes, notadamente a da China, porque elas "parecem ser cada vez mais a tendência futura".
As manifestações do capitalismo de Estado são variadas e podem ser complexas e sofisticadas, como as políticas públicas de apoio aos conglomerados privados sul-coreanos, ou a montagem de fundos soberanos com crescente influência nos fluxos de capitais e investimentos. Mas as experiências de capitalismo de Estado de países emergentes coexistem com manifestações de forte intervencionismo estatal na economia também nos países desenvolvidos, como no caso da empresa de petróleo estatal norueguesa, Statoil, e das políticas americana e europeia de subsídios ao setor agrícola. As experiências das diferentes vertentes de capitalismo de Estado sugerem haver em comum entre elas uma tensão, em maior ou menor grau, entre pragmatismo e ideologia.
Impactos adversos na economia brasileira, incluindo valorização cambial, especulação com preços de ativos e barreiras ao comércio e ao investimento, precisam ser mitigados com o emprego de estratégias de desenvolvimento e de inserção internacional
Mais recentemente, as inéditas e massivas intervenções na economia pelos governos dos países no epicentro da crise financeira por meio de "quantitative easing" e "bailouts", por exemplo, têm provocado profundas repercussões na alocação de recursos e formação de preços não apenas no plano doméstico, mas, também, internacional. Essas intervenções, muitas delas oportunistas, são especialmente intrusivas devido ao tamanho dessas economias e ao fato de suas moedas serem reserva de valor internacional, criando e agravando desequilíbrios macroeconômicos internacionais e acentuando as condições já assimétricas de competição.
O emprego de políticas de capitalismo de Estado parece estar se popularizando mundo afora à medida que a crise econômica e as incertezas se agravam. O capitalismo de Estado da China e o fracasso de políticas econômicas ultra-liberais, como algumas perseguidas pelos Estados Unidos até antes da crise, nos ajudam a entender porque um dos prováveis legados dessa crise para os políticos é a lição de que governos não devem limitar os seus papéis na economia.
Embora seja compreensível a atratividade do capitalismo de Estado num contexto de crise econômica, a sua multiplicação em escala global tem implicações deletérias. De fato, parece ser pouco plausível que muitos países possam se beneficiar, simultaneamente, de políticas de capitalismo de Estado devido à falácia da composição e devido às externalidades negativas por elas provocadas, que tendem a desorganizar o sistema econômico, fomentar reações mercantilistas e alimentar tensões políticas entre países. Por isso, é muito provável que a popularização dessas políticas dificulte a recuperação da economia mundial. O emprego de políticas de capitalismo de Estado também suscita questões associadas às escolhas entre interesses nacionais e compromissos internacionais, como os do G-20, com reflexos para a credibilidade do sistema multilateral.
Para que se mitiguem a proliferação do capitalismo de Estado e seus potenciais riscos para o crescimento econômico mundial, será preciso que os países, notadamente Estados Unidos, União Europeia e China, reconheçam a interdependência das políticas micro e macroeconômicas nacionais e seus impactos nos países em desenvolvimento. Será preciso, assim, redobrar os esforços de coordenação de políticas e de gestão de interesses conflitantes. No entanto, experiências como o colapso do Acordo de Doha, crise do Euro e as dificuldades de avanço nos acordos do clima ilustram os desafios de coordenação e de solução de controvérsias em períodos de crise.
Como as políticas de capitalismo de Estado têm significativos impactos adversos na economia brasileira, incluindo valorização cambial, especulação com preços de ativos e barreiras ao comércio e ao investimento, torna-se necessário o emprego de estratégias de desenvolvimento e de inserção internacional que busquem mitigar esses impactos. Tais estratégias deveriam levar em conta a combinação dos benefícios do comércio com os das políticas públicas de promoção da indústria conciliada com o desenvolvimento e a exploração das vantagens produtivas e competitivas nacionais. Deveriam, também, reconhecer as relações entre comércio e variáveis macroeconômicas como câmbio, juros e política fiscal e seus impactos na indústria e no comércio, buscar o reconhecimento internacional dos impactos dos grandes desequilíbrios macroeconômicos e das políticas de outros países na economia brasileira, e intensificar esforços indutores do aumento da competitividade através da redução dos custos de produção e aumento da produtividade e dos investimentos em capital humano e inovação.

quarta-feira, 1 de agosto de 2012

O Caso Pussy Riot


 O caso Pussy Riot é bem interessante. Veja:


 Reino Unido – The Independent

Pussy Riot's enemies don't stop at Putin

Mary Dejevsky
Three 20-something women who look, in their glass courtroom cage, no more than girls, are being tried in Moscow for "hooliganism". The charge, which could see them imprisoned for seven years, relates to an anti-Putin song they sang in Moscow's main cathedral. The case of the Pussy Riot three has, rightly, prompted outrage, both that criminal charges were brought at all in response to what appears little more than a punk-band prank, and for the harshness of their treatment – they have spent the past five months in custody. The celebrated quotation about "a butterfly broken on a wheel", which headed a Times editorial about Mick Jagger's 1967 drugs trial, has received a new outing in the English-speaking world.
Amid the outrage, however, one aspect of the case risks being lost. In performing their anti-Putin routine before the altar of the cathedral of Christ the Saviour, the women offended not just one, but two, powerful constituencies. The first, and the one most Western condemnation has focused on, is Vladimir Putin – back in the Kremlin for a third presidential term. But the second is the Russian Orthodox Church.
It is a little as though British anarchists had called for the Queen's head from the altar in Westminster Abbey, in an age when both the monarchy and the Church were held in awe. Even this comparison, though, underplays the position of Russia's Orthodox Church.
For all the compromises with secular power that taint its past, the Church is one of very few institutions that have flourished since the fall of the Soviet Union. Gorbachev's perestroika relaxed the grip of official atheism, and churches rushed to re-gild their domes and commission new icons. Orthodoxy became a rallying point for Russians' reclaimed national identity.
And the cathedral of Christ the Saviour has resonance beyond this. Built to commemorate the retreat of Napoleon and dynamited by Stalin, it was rebuilt on the personal order of Russia's first post-Soviet leader, Boris Yeltsin. The crowds that now throng its services testify to the religious, as well as national, revival of the past 20 years.
Some of the fiercest ire against Pussy Riot has come not from the Kremlin, nor from a patently equivocal Prime Minister, but from Orthodox clergy and ordinary people, who regard the group's antics as blasphemy, and do not separate Church and State. The Kremlin's hand may indeed be discerned in this prosecution, but so can the outlines of a dispute about tolerance and what sort of society Russia wants to be. The reference to "breaking a butterfly on a wheel" is thus still more pertinent than it might seem. The Pussy Riot trial is about culture quite as much as it is about power.